No surprise to me but a new paper looks at the forecast accuracy of over one million prediction questions from Polymarket, ...

In January 2025 my mom’s lung cancer spread to her brain. The drug with the best chance of helping her was approved in China but not here. A doctor told me, almost as an aside, that if she were ...

Will AI poison the public finances of many modern states? There is a real risk that it will. Yesterday, I circulated a new paper, “Saving for the Machines,” which makes a simple point. Building the AI ...

What happens across generations to wealth shocks? Do they endure and even magnify, or do they dissipate? By implication, how much modern wealth is attributable to events before 1900? This paper uses ...

Using a stacked difference-in-differences design covering shootings between 1990 and 2025, I compare cohorts at affected universities before and after the shooting with cohorts at matched control ...

At some point AI will be more regulated than it is today.  Furthermore, I believe that most parts of the American economy, once they are regulated, end up overregulated. Thus it is likely that the AI ...

We study the role of foreign ideas in U.S. innovation by constructing a directed “genealogy” of technologies from the full text of 13 million patents filed between 1887 and 2024. By tracing which ...

Of course I read to absorb the content, but I also am in a position to meet many authors, have contact with them, and spend time with them.  So reading anything also is a potential option on those ...

When machines can perform a growing share of tasks, growth depends on two margins: how the task structure affects the returns to accumulating machines, and how strongly capital accumulation responds ...

This paper examines the revenue and migration impact of the 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act, a one-time 5 percent tax on the worldwide net worth of individuals exceeding $1 billion. Using data ...

Unreleased models — why are they important? Patel: As in the ones that are internal to the companies? Cowen: Well, many companies have unreleased models. Maybe it would cost too much to release them ...

Therefore, the NSF, NIH, and the federal government should put far more resources and effort into developing metascience. With proper metascience efforts, the NSF could run experiments on science ...